Called 21 July · closes 8 August, 7:00pm PT
Eighteen calls. Twelve made blind, before a single bid existed. Six added late, because I missed them — and I'll show you why that matters.
Goldin publishes no estimates. No range, no guide, nothing. So there's no house number to beat here — only the outcome.
This is a sneaker channel, so these come first. Six of the eleven below were added on 29 July after I realised my original sweep had missed them — including the two biggest sneaker lots in the sale. Those six are marked late, and they're graded separately, because calling something after ten days of bidding is easier than calling it cold.
Deepest comp chain in the sale. Currently $57,000 hammer with 12 bids.
Strongest sneaker provenance here: a one-of-one, photo-matched, signed, inscribed, with triple authentication, attached to a real moment. I missed it. It was at $24,000 with 19 bids when I caught it.
The biggest sneaker lot in the sale and I didn't call it. $26,500 with 20 bids when I found it.
Thirteen bids at both snapshots. Hasn't moved a dollar in eight days.
A named milestone: ninth player ever to do it. Quadruple documentation.
Photo-matched but not signed. Sitting next to Lot 86, which is both — so this pair tests what a signature is actually worth.
Up 45% in eight days.
Weakest documentation of the five — no photo match. Best story. $1,500 when I caught it.
This one's already gone past me. $1,600 to $8,989 in eight days — up 462%, from 7 bids to 24. My ceiling is $8,000 all-in and it's already at $10,967.
Up 264%, 5 bids to 13. Sitting right at the top of my band with ten days left.
Barely moved. Up 12% and 11%.
Up 130% in eight days, from 2 bids to 12. Currently inside the band.
Up 46%. Inside the band.
Up 7%. Well below my floor so far.
Up 8%.
Called low deliberately. Two days ago a Jokić 39-point triple-double closed at $12,160 — best line in that sale, worst price. He's the best player nobody's buying.
The Michael Jordan jersey — final season, photo-matched — was at $47,000 when I called it on 21 July. I said $95,000–140,000.
Then I revised it down to $45,000–70,000, on the argument that Wizards-era Jordan trades at a discount to Bulls-era Jordan. I had a comp for it: a Wizards warm-up matched to six games that closed at $20,840. The mythology is the Bulls. The Wizards years are the epilogue.
It's now at $100,000 hammer — $122,000 all-in — with ten days still to run. That's 74% above my revised ceiling and it isn't coming back down.
The original call would have been a hit.
What I got wrong: a photo-matched final-season Jordan jersey is a moment, and I let a category discount override that. The Wizards discount is real — it just doesn't apply to the last season he ever played.
It's the second time an over-correction has cost me a call this month. Both times the correction was the mistake, not the original read.
Both bands stay on the record. The revision is dated, the original is preserved next to it, and neither gets quietly deleted. That's the deal, and it's the deal precisely so this is uncomfortable.
On a sneaker channel. Including the two biggest in the sale — a one-of-one LeBron promo sample and a Curry Finals Game 1 pair, both photo-matched and signed, both bigger than anything I did call.
My original sweep took the marquee jerseys at the top and the cheap player exclusives at the bottom, and missed everything in the middle. Which is exactly where this channel lives.
The six late calls above are marked as late. They're a weaker class — ten days of bidding tells you a lot that a cold call doesn't — and they'll be graded separately. But they're on the record, because the alternative is pretending I saw them.
Before I called this sale I predicted the cheapest lots would post the biggest gains. Eight days in: the two sub-$2,000 Curry pairs are up 264% and 462%. Everything expensive is up between nothing and 130%.
The prediction is landing and it's still killing one of my price calls — Lot 92 has already blown through its ceiling. Right on the pattern, wrong on the number. That happens more than you'd think.
One other thing worth flagging. Yesterday I published a theory that off-season sales run cool, and calibrated my Heritage calls downward on the back of it. This sale closes in the dead of the off-season and it is running hot. That's evidence against my own theory, arriving before the test I set for it. I'll take it where it goes.
Lots close from 7:00pm PT on 8 August with 30-minute extensions. Eighteen calls, twelve blind and six late, plus a pre-registered prediction about which lots move most.